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Cheltenham tips and statistics

Its Cheltenham festival week and although I am not really a lover of this big meetings when it comes to serious money making, but I do like the spectacle of the whole meeting.

A scenic view of Cheltenham Race Course

But as I am a system builder who like statistics I thought it would be a great time to write an article about Cheltenham and some of the facts about winners.

Now this doesn’t just cover the “Cheltenham Festival” week it covers all Chase and Hurdle racing at the course.

Let’s start with an “about” Cheltenham.

Cheltenham is in Gloucestershire just over the border from where I live.

Located in a place called Prestbury Park it even boast its own Steam railway station.

It has a spectator’s capacity for 67,500.

When I was at a dog Agility show at the course on Valentine’s Day they were already on their way to putting up the marques and hospitality tents ready for the festival.

It always is a massive event.

Horse Racing Picture

So here are some statistics that may (no guarantees) may help you find a winner.

The following statistics are based on our own data going back to 19/10/2012 to the present day and show results from 4195 runners.

Cheltenham Race Statistics

2017
Cheltenham Race Statistics 2017


Hurdle races (2113 runners / 2307 2017).

29.7 % of winners are favourites (30.73% 2017).

71.13 % winners came from the ranked top 4 (71.09% 2017) .

14.97% winners were first last time out (13.67% 2017).

Handicap Hurdle Races.

22.37% of winners are favourites.

49.43% of winners come from the top 4.

6 Year old's seem to win the most often at 9.47% compared to only 5.19% of 4 year old's and 3.36% of 8 year old's.

Horses that won last time out have the highest percentage of winners at 11.26% compared to 2.89% or 3.68% if the horse was 2nd or 3rd last time.

Horses bread in Ireland (IRE) win slightly more often at 6.19% compared to horses bred in the UK at 5.49%
Interestingly horses bred in Germany (GER) have a 14.29% success rate.

Favourite handicap Hurdle statistics.

(Please note we only have statistics for 76 Handicap Favourites.)

Favourites actually show a profit (as of the 14/03/2016) of 15.27 at Betfair SP.

UK bred horses that were favourite have won 42.86% of the time compared to Irish Bred horse winning 17.07% of the time.

Again German bred horses have done better at a 50% strike rate.

My top tips for choosing a winner at Hurdle winner at Cheltenham.

  1. Handicap races
  2. Favourite
  3. UK bred horse.
     
They won 3 out of the 7 races with a return of investment of 114.13%

Chase Races (2082 runners)

26.86 % of winners are favourites.

67.80 % winners come from the rank toped 4.

12.27% winners were first last time out.

Chase Handicap Races.

17.39% of winners are favourites.

47.70% of winners come from the top 4.

8 Year olds have a strike rate of 9.94% compared to 6 year olds at 7.09%.

Last time out is roughly the same whether the horse was 1st to 4th.

Horse bred in Ireland (IRE) have a strike of 8.33% compared to UK bred horses that have only managed 6% overall.

Favourite Chase handicap statistics.
(Please note we only have statistics for 96 Handicap Favourites 16 won.)

8 Year old's have a strike rate of 22.73% compared to 6 Year old's at 9.52%.

Out of 96 all 16 winners came from 6 to 9 year old's.

 Of 16 runners that had won at the Cheltenham and in the same distance race 37.5% of them won again giving a return of 8.78 points at Betfair SP.

32 of these favourites won their last rate and 8 went on to win again and out of those 8 winners only 1 had won more than once in its last 3 races.

None of the 32 winners came from the top 1st or 2nd rated.

56 of the runners were bred in Ireland (IRE) and 23.21% went on to win compared to only 11.11% from the UK.

My top tips for choosing a winner at Chase winner at Cheltenham.
   
  1. Handicap races
  2. Favourites
  3. 1st last time out.
  4. Cloth number 6th,7th or 8th
Out of 9 selections they have won 5 times at Betfair SP of 10.57.

If you want a system that covers Cheltenham jump as a whole then this may be what you are looking for.
  1. Favourites
  2. 1st last time out
  3. Course and Distance winner (distance doesn’t have to be at Cheltenham).
Winning graph of this Cheltenham system

A total of 41 selections and 26 winners with a strike rate of 63.41% and a 20.46 Points profit at Betfair SP and a Return on Investment of 49.91%.

I went through the cards for Tomorrow (15/03/2016) and here are the selections that would meet the criteria if they are favourites.


Day 1

1:30
Altior (2nd Favourite) 1st 4/1
Mister Miyagi 6th

 2:10
Douvan (Favourite at the moment) 1st 1/4

2:50 None

3:30
The New One 4th
Annie Power (Favourite) Won 5/2

4:10
Polly Peachum  (2nd Favourite) 10th 6/1

16:50 None
17:30 None

Two selections were favourites and they both won. It's a shame Altior wasn't favourite as well.
Interesting the system is actually picking winners even if they don't end up as selections.

Day 2

1:30
YanWorth (Favourite at the moment) 2nd

2:10 
BlackLion (3rd Favourite at the moment) 1st  8/1
SeeYouAtMidnight  (5th Favourite at the moment) 7th
Vyta Du Roc   (6th Favourite at the moment) 5th

2:50 None

3:30 
Sprinter Sacre (2nd Favourite at the moment) 1st 5/1
Un De Sceaux  (Favourite at the moment) 2nd 4/6

4:10 None

4:50 None

5:30
Ballyandy  (2nd Favourite at the moment) 1st 5/1

Day 3

13:30
Garde La Victoire (Favourite at the moment) Fell
King's Odyssey (8th Favourite at the moment) NR
 
14:10 None.

14:50 
Annacotty (12th Favourite at the moment) 11th
Taquin Du Seuil (5th Favourite at the moment) 6th
Village Vic (8th Favourite at the moment) 9th

15:30
ThistleCrack (Favourite at the moment) 1st 1/1

16:10
Sew On Target (15th Favourite at the moment) 8th

16:50 none

17:30
Perfect Candidate (3rd Favourite at the moment) 10th
Midnight Prayer (6th Favourite at the moment) 7th

Day 4

1.30
Sceau Royal  (4th Favourite at the moment) 12th

2:10 none

2:50 
Unowhatimeanharry (6th Favourite at the moment) 1st 11/1

3:30
Smad Place (5th Favourite at the moment) 6th

4:10
Current Event (8th Favourite at the moment) 4th 
Mendip Express (6th Favourite at the moment) 8th
Paint The Clouds (2nd Favourite at the moment) 3rd

4:50 None

5:30
Rock The World (3rd Favourite at the moment) 3rd


Don’t forget that the selection must be the Favourite based on Betfair prices.

Base on exact "distance" winners (how they are in our database) these would be the choices today.




Results (Fav only)



Results (All Selections favourites or not)


Thanks
Malcolm
GHBot.


Please Note: All points profit figures are based on Betfair SP minus the standard 5% commission charged. Statistics are given for information purposes only. We shall not be held liable for the integrity, for editorial or technical errors, omissions etc., nor for the accuracy of data and information given here.