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Horse Racing Dutching. What is it and how can you profit from it and how do you work one out?
When people normally talk about horse racing it is about picking that one winner.
Whether you’re following along with a favourite or looking for that massive priced outsider…
…The emphasis is still on finding one winner.
I suppose we all imagine telling people about the big winner and the few hundred quid we won when it crossed the finish line.
Of course the truth is that not many outsiders actually win.
Yeah some do…but statistically it’s not that many and most winners come from the top 4 or 5 in the betting.
And their prices tend to be more normal!
Looking for one winner is ok but…
…There is another way to win with the horses and it’s called “Dutching”.
Rumored to have been invented by Al Capone’s accountant “Dutchy” Schultz it appears that he worked out the system during his many hours spent at the track.
Whether that is true or not the concept is an interesting one but requires the “Long Game” attitude because you are usually winning less than your stake you use to set the “dutch” up.
But let’s go back and start at the beginning.
What is Dutching?
Dutching is where you bet on more than one runner in a race.
The idea is you spread your risk across several horses you think have the chance of winning.
You calculate your stake based on the odds of each runner so that whichever one wins (if they win) the return will be the same.
Here is an example of how it may look on a 4 runner Dutch staking £10 .
(The prices for this Dutch were worked out at 11am in the morning)
In the above Dutch you can see the price on Betfair, the chance of winning (COW) and the stake you would apply to each race.
This is how it works out.
King Crimson actually won the race.
5.6 (-1 Betfair prices) x 2.09 wins you 9.61
Take away the stakes you lost on (2.49+3.08+2.34)
9.61 – 7.91 = 1.70
As you can see with Dutch betting you can sometime win far less than your overall risk.
But it all depends on the odds.
Here is another example...
As you can see in this case the approximate profit would have been 5.36 which was because the odds were a lot higher meaning bigger returns if one wins.
The issue is that your chance of winning can also drop and the chance of losing becomes higher.
So how is a Dutching bet worked out?
Well there are two parts to the calculation.
First we have to work out the horse’s chance of winning.
This is simply 100 divided by the price.
(Please note: Betfair prices. You take what is on screen but if you are using bookie prices you have to turn it into a decimal and then add 1.00 eg. 3/1 is 3 divided by 1 giving 3 plus 1.00 making a decimal of 4.00)
So as with the above example.
100 / 4.8 = 20.83%
100 / 6.2 = 16.13%
100/ 13 = 7.69%
100/4.9 = 20.41%
Now we need to add up all those percentages which is 65.06.
The calculation is...
COW / total percent * stake.
Using our example and using a stake of £10 this is how it worked out for each runner.
20.83 / 65.06 * 10 = 3.20
16.13/ 65.06 * 10 = 2.48
7.69/ 65.06 * 10 = 1.18
20.41/ 65.06 * 10 = 3.14
What is the downside to dutching?
As already mentioned Dutching is a means of slowly making profit.
When you lose it will take a few successful Dutch bets to get back into profit.
And of course you need to come up with a system that will at least you a fighting chance of making a profit.
So unless you have the “Tortoise wins the race” mind set you will probably get fed up or board pretty quickly.
How to find a race to Dutch.
Really to be successful at Dutching you probably want to find at least 2 if not more races a day to bet on.
But it is better to not bet, than take a chance on a race that you really think should be left alone.
Myself I prefer a Dutch that contains at least 4 selections.
That’s my personal preference and I know many people who prefer less or more.
When I researched handicap races I found that 70% of the winners come from the top 4 in the betting and so for me that was a great place to start.
I also prefer to do my betting on Betfair because I think it gives a truer representation of the horse’s chance of winning (the price) and generally the prices can be higher especially as you come away from the favourite.
It’s then a matter of learning to look at the top 4 and decide if they make a good Dutch.
Another idea on selecting runners.
You may have noticed that I create a lot of tools for GHBot members.
This neat little tool (If I don’t say so myself) gives members a chance to analyse handicap races using the ratings I supply.
One of those ratings we call the “Green Rating” and it is quite good at selecting runners that have a good chance of winning.
Combine this with the top 4 runners in a race and you get some good races to Dutch during the day.
We started testing this idea in April 2016 and it seems to have gone very well.
As I said to members. I am sure that if they were a little more specific over the selections they may even do better than the test we were running.
There are many forms of betting and all of them have their good points and bad points.
The thing I love about dutching though is that apart from working out the stakes (the GHBot will do it automatically) finding one winner from 4 is in my books much easier than finding just one from the whole race.
Until next time.