...6+ points profit...
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I finally have just about all the parts for the plotter I want to build.
I am hoping to go to Maker Space tonight to start putting it together.
Although Wednesdays are always busy showing people around so it depends on how that goes :-)
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Hi Racing friend
We love talking about variance.
This is that "word" that tells us that at some time we are going to get hit by a bunch of losses as the Betting Gods bring us back down to earth with a nice slap.
Variance is the measurement of the spread between numbers in a data set.
What it tries to show us is how far you are off the mean of the dataset.
So for example let's say the mean or normal strike rate of your system is 50% but at the moment you are experiencing 60%...
...Then the variance is 10% and at some stage, it will go back down to 50%...
...But here is the crux to get back to normal it may also have to go down to 40% to get the data set back to its mean.
Ok, that is kind of simplistic but when people talk about "variance" they are normally referring to a set of results that is trying to balance the books and so giving you a hard time.
This is an argument used against "Stop at a winner" or "Stop at any profit".
The reasoning is although you are trying to cheat the data by not following the system to its conclusion it could still catch you out sooner or later by serving you up a nice long losing run before you manage to stop.
Also, when you SAW, I suppose you are creating a new set of results, so it's important to keep an eye on them for future potential problems.
We do have at our disposal other tools like "Stop Loss" that can prevent you from taking the full slap when variance is having a go at us.
Or we could be on the lookout for it when we are having a good run, knowing may be we should start reducing our liability when we feel we are getting close to when it may happen.
Of course, if we know our system/method well enough we should already be armed with this information and ready to ride whatever comes your way.
I suppose in away I am waiting for something like this to happen to the Greyhound Card Software PSR(1) test.
(Click here for my latest article and results roundup about this method)
Yesterday the "Stop at any profit" bot won on the first race.
That is actually 15 first-race wins out of 20 days of selections which returned over 6 points profit.
Generally, the first race that meets the PSR(1) selection criteria is between 10:47 and 11:15, so not that long to wait for a selection.
Yesterday's win was at a price of 1.87 which added a little more to the bank and helped the stake rise a little for today.
The "Stop At 1 Point" bot took a little longer to hit the 1 point and actually ended up making closer to 2 points...
...After a win, loss and two further wins the last one coming in at a price of 2.20.
Click Here to check out the Greyhound Card Software.
https://ghracesoft.co.uk/
Malcolm
I create the tools so you can hit your targets.