...They call it value...
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I had a nightmare morning yesterday.
My email client had a fit and permanently deleted 10+ days of emails!
Can not get them back.
So if you emailed me over the last 10 days and I haven't answered (Which I normally would have)...
...Then please email me again :-)
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Hi there
I hope your 10 points a month first day went well.
Will let you know as the results come in on mine.
Value!
We hear that word a lot and often people are telling us that "You have to find value".
But what does it mean?
Well, I suppose the simplest way to explain it is if you are making a profit from a system or method...
...Then you have probably found away to create value.
But the way it is normally explained is that you look at a race or match and using your own research and/or calculations...
...You decide if you agree with the price.
If you think the price is higher than it should be, then you have found value...
...as long as your research/calculatations are correct over the long term and you make a profit.
Even that explanation is not actually explaining how you actually find value.
So let's start a little simpler.
Yesterday I saw a tennis match about to be played between.
Jenson Brooksby 1.66
Ignacio Buse 2.48
The Betfair prices implied that Brooksby had a 60.24%...
...and Buse had a 40.32% chance of winning.
So I ran this through my AI "Professional Tennis Value Analyst" which I have been working on for a while.
It gives me a lot of information, but it ended with:
Fair Odds:
Brooksby: 1.43
Buse: 3.33
So the AI felt that Brooksby actually had a 69.93% chance of winning...
...Making the current price of 1.66 a value bet even though it was the favourite.
So I took the bet and Brooksby won in 3 straight sets.
The day before, I had another example.
Vit Kopriva 1.75 V Jan Choinski 2.34
This time, Choinski was the value when the AI thought his price should have been around 2.04–2.13
The AI also thought the match was much closer than the Betfair prices were showing.
Now this was not necessarily a bet I thought I was going to win, but it was a good value bet...
...and if you win enough on them, you should make a profit.
Choinski won 3 straight sets against a slightly injured Kopriva.
So in theory you are looking for a better chance of winning than the market suggests.
I think this works better on Tennis and maybe football, where you only have two sides to concentrate on.
Horse racing, on the other hand, where you have a lot more runners to consider, is a bit more of a minefield.
I am really pleased with the prompt so far and will be testing it further over the Wimbledon tournament.
Until Next time
Malcolm
I create the tools so you can find the winners.
P.S. 👉Why the Bookies love the Acca...👈
...And why it's costing you a fortune!
https://bluebelldata.thrivecart.com/ooas/
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