...who knows...
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It's Friday!
I think as we are in November, I will sort out my Christmas projects this weekend.
I have a few things I want to start work on and a few I need to work out.
I need to order some electronics as well:-)
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Morning!
As you know, I have been following the Betfair/Timeform 123 selections for the last few months.
I am just trying to get a handle on how good they are.
TF2 (normally 4 stars) is a very strange beast.
The first two months it lost 66 points and then 88 points...
...but then it made 56 points the next month and this month is already up 52 points!
Apart from that, there seems to be profit if you "Lay" TF2 when it is a favourite...
...But again this month, you would be down 11.42 points so far.
It is strange and difficult to work out what to do with it.
Maybe now that you have a few months of past data in PR Ratings, you can let me know if you find anything.
https://prratings.co.uk/
...A little calculation for you.
If you take the price of 1.50 and work out its chance of winning...
...Then you get 1/1.50 67%
So out of 100 selections
67 x 0.50 (profit) = 33.50
33 x -1 (loss) = -33
Add in commission and you know you're losing.
But you also know if you can do better than a 67% strike rate, then you are in profit.
Let's take a 70% strike rate and build in 2% commission.
70 x 0.49 = 34.30
30 x -1 = -30
Total profit = 4.30.
What if you could do better than 70%?
Click Here to find some selections that may help
https://www.cashouttrading.com/aisports/
Until Next time
Malcolm
I create the tools so you can find the winners.
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