🐎👉 Winning run of 19…

...3 x 6 Accas...

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 I spent a lot of time in my workshop over the weekend and even had a play on the wood lathe.

I had to spend a couple of hours tidying it up at first, though, because it was a bit of a mess.

I need to learn to clean up after I work on something :-)

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Morning!

Having information at your fingertips that can help you decide on what may happen in the future with your system is quite vital.

Take "longest losing runs".

We don't really like them and in some cases, we just ignore them even if we see them in past results.

But did you know there is a way to work them out based on statistics?

You can approximate the longest expected losing streak using the formula:

𝐿 = log(𝑁)/log (1/𝑝) L=log(N)/log(1/p)

Where:
L = expected longest losing streak
N = number of bets
p = probability of winning (0.50 in your case)

So for a 50% strike rate over 1000 selections, it would be just below 10.

The more selections you do this over, the higher the losing streak will be.

For a 50% strike rate, you could see:
6+ in 100 bets  
10+ in 1,000 bets  
Even 14+ in 10,000 bets

Ok, let's look at this another way...

results 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000 10000

35% Win Rate 11 13 14 16 18 20 21

40% Win Rate 9 11 12 14 15 17 18

45% Win Rate 8 9 10 12 13 14 15

50% Win Rate 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

55% Win Rate 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

60% Win Rate 5 6 7 8 9 9 10

If you think of the above as a table with columns and rows, you will get the idea.

Statistics tell us that the longer we follow a system, the longer our losing runs will get.

But even just understanding what a strike rate is telling us at least helps us plan.

That doesn't mean it is set in stone.

My long-term test using the Over/Under x Bot had 2416 selections now with a strike rate of around 66%...

...Which means my LLR looks like 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 (or thereabouts), but so far I haven't had a losing run over 6.

In fact, over the weekend, I had a run of 19 winners!

That would have been another 3 x 6 Accas.

Maybe I am just being lucky...Time will tell.

Click Here to check out the Over/Under x Goal bot (now with BTTS).

https://bluebelldata.thrivecart.com/ouxgoalbot/

Until Next time

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can find the winners.

P.S. The new BTTS Strategy Guide is out.
 
I am calling it the "Only BTTS strategy guide you will ever need"
 
 
https://bluebelldata.thrivecart.com/bttsfp/

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