...Which side are you on?...
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Just as I was getting ready to go to the lakes I got a call from a mate who asked if I wanted to help him look at some second hand electric cars.
He was thinking of buying one and he knows that I know a lot about them.
I can not resist an invite to test electric :-)
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Hi there
So last week I asked for readers response about me thinking of stopping the "Not for Everyone" lays selections.
It was interesting to see the responses.
Here is a for "keeping" them side:
"Hi Malcolm
Some interesting thoughts in your email today and I'll share mine in return if I may as I think you've touched on a crucial aspect of laying here.
Laying pre-event on a set and forget basis is all about timescale and horizons for me.
Let's take the NFE experience. The average is 19 points over several months but it has to weather huge swings at times.
If you think short term then these are intolerable and frustrating but if you set out with the expectation of a modest average monthly return of, say, 10 points then at the end of 12 months you should, in theory, have 120 points.
Probably not, as we never know when the swings and roundabouts strike, but just 80 points on the first anniversary represents an 80% bank growth if you started with a bank of 100 points and staked 1 point per trade consistently. Most investors would settle for that, unless they are fast lane speculators!
At that point you can review your new bank of 180 points and set a new point value for the second year ahead - and on you go.
Essentially, it's taking your 10 point per month profit plan, but thinking years not months. The key factors are:
- How much time is this taking up?
If you're just getting an advice by email each day, logging on to Betfair and placing a set and forget trade, then very little.
On that basis, if personal circumstances and time availability change in the future then you should still be able to keep up as you're not committed to hours of research or tracking live events.
- Reliability and consistency of the advice received. Is the source going to end or amend their services at some point in the near future? How long have they been around? What's their track record? To think long term your source needs to as well.
Regards
Gwynn"
On the other side is this...
"Hi Malcolm
I think the NFEL was a great idea to check out but for me personally, it would be a disaster of a system because of the volatility.
I’m a fan of laying and I use it most in live footie trading but my absolute maximum, and I really need to think it’s a slam dunk, is 6.0, so the prices in NFE are too big for me.
As you know, the figures are all rational brain stuff and look exciting - 19 points per month – and it’s easy to look at the volatility and think, “I can handle that over the long-term for that profit”.
But when the volatility kicks in and 4 out of 6 lays go belly up, the emotions go off the scale and I’ve only known one person over the years who can actually stick with a system like that and, boy, did he make some money on the systems he used!
And, 10 years later, he’s still working that way, has automated everything, and has made shedloads on the footie.
He gave me one of his systems – and not even the real outlier stuff – and I tried it for almost a year on small stakes (£5) but couldn’t settle to the volatility: too much of a roller coaster for this bumper car man!
So, for my money I’d think of two solutions: first, bin it; second, put all the figures into AI and ask if there’s a less volatile approach that turns a profit.
For me, I’d much rather put £200 on a 1.3 Home team and trade out for a, say, 15% percent profit after a goal than put £30 on a 7.6 nag and hope to get the 98% profit.
I’d be interested to know what anyone else thinks if they reply, especially if they’ve ever put money
Cheers
Ken"
Interesting...What side do you come down on?
Until Next time
Malcolm
I create the tools so you can find the winners.
P.S. 👉Want to find "Value" the same way I do?...👈
I have created 4 specifics GPT's which you simply tell them the match/race you are looking at...
...And they will give you a full report to tell you whether they think the prices represent value.
Same system I use for my Daily Value selections.
Great for finding in-play trades as well :-)
https://bluebelldata.thrivecart.com/gptsvf/
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