... Easy or hard?...

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I should go for a park run this morning but I can't quite get in the mood for taking part.

Instead, I think I will spoil one of the dogs (Lara) and take her on a long hike for a few hours.

I think I just fancy getting out into the country :-)

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Morning!

Yesterday I managed to get the results up for the Favourite system so we can keep an eye on them for a while.

If you didn't you can still join the list for a while.

👉🏻 Click Here to go to the sign-up page.👈🏻

https://www.cashouttrading.com/fs/index.html

At the moment in the Groups I am testing a new rating system I came up with.

It was a little idea I had about using statistical values to find potential winners.

Although I still think it needs some work.

So how do you go about creating your own ratings and judging whether a horse may win or lose or represent value?

Most people who try this create a scoring system based on the current form or past form.

Let's take LTO (Last Time Out) as an example.

Here is a little chart (from 1/01/2023).

(Note: -2 Not raced before, -1 didn't finish LTO, 0 outside the top 9 LTO. You can use "Quick Anaylise" in PR Ratings to get these charts)

We can see that 1st LTO favourites tend to win the most (Apart from -2 and -1) and any runner who finished 5 or worst (Apart from not finished) has a lot lower strike rate.

So if you were looking at the horses in a race you could use this information to create a score based on their LTO value.

It would be worth checking for all runners as well not just favourites.

As you can see from the above screenshot we have a clearer view of all runner's LTO strike rate.

So this could lead us to say that we score 1st LTO with say a 5, but if they are favourite we give them some extra points...

...Or you could just use the statistical values as part of the scoring system.

If you have looked at SPT (Scoring Power Tool) you will see we use a "Points" system to find and highlight runners which we could be interested in.

https://greyhorsebot.co.uk/spt.asp

One area I find interesting is Favourites (As you may have guessed) and working out when they are vulnerable or false.

The only thing I would say is that using form access that everyone has access to may just be reflected in the price...

...But having statistics from ratings that the general public does not have is where you could find the edge.

You can see for the BTOIP statistics that Favourites win far more often when their score is higher.

They are the type of statistics your average punter doesn't have!

👉🏻 Click Here to find out more about PR Ratings.👈🏻

https://prratings.co.uk/

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can create systems.