...Beating the false favourite.

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The lighter evenings are creeping in gradually and the sun is getting a bit higher in the sky.

We actually saw it more in the west yesterday than we have for some time.

Still a couple of months before we can start doing early evening walks on the Ridgeway :-)

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Hi there.

As you may be aware, I have been posting a "False Favourite" of the day on FB...

...And been doing quite well with it (although I haven't checked last night's yet).

The method I have come up with is quite complex for finding these selections, so I wanted to look at some easier ways of spotting favourites that could lose.

If you take the last year, favourites have won on average 35.56%.

This means that straight away, you have a 64.44% chance of picking one that loses.

We can do better by sticking with favourites that are trading with a price of 2.00 or above...

...which gets us up to 69%.

If we only use handicap races, then we can get this upto 70%.

Sticking with races of 9 or more runners moves that up to 73%.

And if you stick with runners that have not been tipped by more than 5 tipsters...

...then you are on your way to 75% before looking at anything else.

We now only have around a 25% chance of losing, will only have a few races to deal with each day...

...And can now concentrate on the race that feels the most competitive.

Then your question becomes.

Is there another horse in this race that can beat the favourite?

I am working on that part at the moment :-)

You can find these and lots more stats using PR Ratings.

Click Here to find out more.

https://prratings.co.uk/

Football...

The FHG/LTD had two top runners with scores of 9.00 yesterday.

I thought they were going to be easy matches to follow.

Both matches ended with just one goal, which was scored later into the second half of the match.

One had a red card and I thought that might shut down the game, but luckily, the goal came.

As they had an equal highest score, they were both treated as the best of the day.

Click here to check out the results.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d03xJA-nij4JFnEC0mJ6fIk9wzoNgYX3RRouHBE4cUY/edit?usp=sharing

Until Next time.

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can find the winners.