🐎👉 Only a 27% chance of winning...

...But profitable.

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I have to get an ECIR done on our electrics, which is a bit later than the 10 years recommended.

 When you live in an older house, there are always quirks to the wiring, and I have never worried about doing some jobs myself.

It's going to be interesting to see if I get my hands slapped by the electrician who carries out the report

Spur, what spur :-)

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Hi there.

At the moment, while I am trying to figure out this "False Favourite" method (Had two losers now :-( )...

...I am doing a lot of research on favourites.

Here is something for you.

We know that 1st last time out is a "sign" for some punters that this could be a good runner, especially if it is the favourite.

The problem with that idea is that everyone thinks it is a good thing and a favourite who came 1st LTO wins a little bit more than a normal favourite...

...But that is baked right into the price and means losing your cash.

But horse racing is never quite as simple as that, which is why I love using PR Ratings and "Quick Analyse" to dig into the statistics and see what I can find.

Here is an example.

AW handicap favourites that were 1st LTO actually made a profit last year...

...But not enough to "Write home about".

Interestingly though...

2nd favourites that were 1st LTO won less at 27% but made a lot of profit.

112 points with a ROI of 30.57 (at Betfair BSP and 2% commission).

But we all know it is not always easy choosing the 2nd favourite at BSP, especially when prices are close.

So I looked at the 2nd rank runner 10 mins before the off...

...Which is probably easier to follow.

Here are the stats.

27.27% Strike rate

39.58 ROI

This month alone, the profit is 28 points so far.

AW punters are not pricing the chances of the 2nd favourite correctly in some cases (1st LTO), which is creating value.

Don't get me wrong, they are not suddenly winning any more than usual, they just seem to be making a profit.

Click here to find out more about PR Ratings.

https://prratings.co.uk/

Football...

Strangely, the FHG/LTD tips had another two runners at 9.00 yesterday.

One played out far better than the other that ended in a 0-0 draw.

Click here to check out the results.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d03xJA-nij4JFnEC0mJ6fIk9wzoNgYX3RRouHBE4cUY/edit?usp=sharing

Until Next time.

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can find the winners.

P.S. Want to base your Greyhound system search on One Million Plus records?
Well, now you can with the Greyhound Database Software.
Includes the amazing "Quick Analyse" feature so that you find systems in minutes.
https://www.cashouttrading.com/mgdbs.asp
 

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