...Pretty good...

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I finally went climbing last night for the first time in a couple of weeks.

There was no doubt I had lost some strength, so I just took it easy for the first time back.

Well, easy...ish :-)

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Morning!

As you probably know from my previous emails, the chances of a match ending in Over 2.5 Goals is around 50/51%

Although the average odds that you get per match may tell a slightly different story.

Depending on who you talk to, this could be around 1.70 to 2.0.

One of my trials is around 1.70 and one is around 1.80...

...So not anywhere near 2.00.

If we convert those to chances of winning:

1/1.70 =58%
1/ 1.80 = 55% 

We can see the markets are expecting a bigger % of the games I choose to win :-)

Ok, let's take a middle ground of 1.75 or 57%...

...And drop the actual winnings down to 0.73 (after commission).

Let's say we won 51% of the time as expected, and this happened exactly over 100 selections (it wouldn't).

51 x 0.73 = 37.23
49 * -1 = -49 

That gives us a loss of 11.77 points.

So that's no good.

What if the strike rate was, say, 72% under the same scenario?

72 x 0.73 = 52.56
28 x -1 = -24.56

That gives us a profit of 28 points and, of course, a ROI of 28%.

Over the last 5 Days, the AI tips in the FB group have been running at 72% :-)

Click Here to check out the BTTS Strategy guide
https://bluebelldata.thrivecart.com/btts/

Back to some horse racing tomorrow :-)

Until Next time

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can find the winners.