...Really, What is the chance?...

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It's Friday!

 I am seeing my sister on Saturday for the first time since she was rushed to hospital with an aneurysm at Christmas.

I know you are probably thinking I should have seen her before, but what she needed was rest and she has a big family of her own.

I have talked to her most days since :-)

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Morning!

I was recording a video for YouTube about Accumulators and what your chances of success are.

It's quite interesting when you look at your likely chance of winning one.

Let's say you created a 3-leg Acca all using 2/1 selections.

If we turn a 2/1 bet into a decimal it is 3.00 (2/1 + 1).

If we divide 100/3 then we get 33.33% which is our chance of winning that bet.

The thing is it doesn't stop there because we now have to work out our chances of winning all 3 of them in a row.

What we have to do is Multiply 3x3x3, which works out as 27.

Now if we take 100 and divide it by 27 we get 3.70%

This is why the bookies love this Bet so much because really you have a very small chance of pulling it off...

...Even with 2/1 bets.

But what if you were just interested in making 1 point from your Acca and you decided to go for prices at 1.5?

We can make 1 point with two legs at those prices.

1 x 1.5 = 0.50
1.50 x 1.50 = 0.75
Total PL 1.25.

1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25

100/2.25 = 44% chance of pulling it off which is far better than 3.70%.

It's almost a kind of challenge to see if you can do it :-)

You only actually need prices of 1.45 to make a 1-point Acca which is a 50% chance of success.

If you could put up with 1/2 a point a day then you could go down to a price of 1.24...

...Watch out for the video tomorrow to see a method of finding those prices :-)

Click Here to find out more about the Greyhorse Bot.

https://greyhorsebot.co.uk/

Until Next Time

Malcolm

I create the tools so you can create systems.